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  • Writer's pictureCristian

Simulation of Covid-19 Contagion in the city of Vigo

2G/3G/4G Mobility data provided by the "Instituto Nacional de Estadística" in Spain (INE) were used for the simulation. These data correspond to the mobility flow matrices between the 217 cells in Galicia.

The simulation begins with the number of cases reported as of the date of March 8, 2020. The start date of the lockdown March 15, 2020 was taken into account during the simulation. The simulation was run to observe the behaviour of the pandemic for a period of 74 days from the mentioned starting date.

The model allows to operationalize the way in which different parameters and events interact with each other. This makes it possible to experiment with a variety of scenarios the nonlinear effect of explanatory variables on the evolution of COVID-19.

According to the results of the simulations, lockdown and social distance are, in all cases, the measures that most affect the behaviour of the spread of the virus, therefore, those that most help to prevent and slow down the virus contagion.

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